Third Debate: a Reverse ‘Rope-a-Hope’

Exclusive Analysis

Austin, Texas.  October 23 — The President chose to go on the attack in the Third Presidential Debate last night; in a sort of reverse ‘rope-a-Hope’ strategy the challenger attempted to defuse the pummeling by not quite praising the President’s efforts but, rather, agreeing with him whenever it was even remotely possible.   This was the Obama of 2008, though the pounding spoke less of hope and change & more of a desperate attempt to please his base.

For all the chest-pounding on the President’s side of the aisle, er, Spin Room, the fact remained that Obama was back in familiar territory of long  sentences, a relatively high usage of  the passive voice, with a lower reading ease, and attendant higher grade level scores.  Once again, the higher use of the passive voice often is interpreted as attempting to evade ownership or shift responsibility.  Obama’s use of passive was more than double his use in the Second Debate.    Typically, a bellicose style does not win over the undecided, who seek to be more reassured than shouted at.

Romney’s numbers were remarkably similar during all three debates, which apparently reflects his steady, controlled, ‘gee willikers’-type personality, with a direct, if quaint, speaking style.  This is a style of moderate-length, declarative sentences, with little use of the passive voice,  and short, direct, and easy to understand words.

Both candidates were attempting to sound (and look) presidential and it was apparent that the second task was quite wearying.  Holding back on Biden-esque smirks and Al Gore-ish disdain, feigning interest while keeping their talking points in mind, looked to take a singular toll.

Now the question remains if the Third Debate, along with a narrow win in the Second, is enough to unwind the havoc wrought by Debate No. 1, which introduced Mitt 2.0 (or even 3.0) upon an unsuspecting American electorate.  Indeed, who knew that Mr.  Romney could even affect let alone reverse his apparent off-course trajectory in a 90-minute span?  Seldom has the course of a major American campaign change in a shorter amount of time.  And seldom has a foregone conclusion, Obama winning an electoral  landslide, collapsed as  suddenly.


Not the Thrilla in Manila, but Certainly Nasty in Nassau

Austin, TEXAS.  October 17, 2012.  The President Obama of yore (2008, that is) showed up at the debate  last night and so was hailed the victor.  In fact, the numbers show that it was not that Romney faltered.  He did not.  Rather it was the President who recovered from his first debate ‘debacle’ (as viewed by his strongest supporters).

The numbers reveal the story.  First, keep this number in mind:  7.4.  This is the grade level of Obama’s most widely hailed speech, the “Yes, We Can!” Grant Park victory speech.  ‘Yes, We Can!” is widely perceived as a classic to be enshrined in the American Oratory Hall of Fame along side Martin Luther King, Jr.’s “I have a dream,” Lincoln’s “Gettysburg Address,’ and Ronald Reagan’s “City on a Hill” speeches.

In the first Presidential debate, Obama’s grade level came in at 9.2.  For a debate, with all its give-and-take, interruptions, pauses and the like, that was a rather high number. A Town Hall meeting is definitely not the place for the  grandiloquent turn of phrase, especially when you are trying to woo the undecided citizens of the land with plain speakin’ — no matter how uncomfortable that might be.

We all told in sixth grade that a newspaper should be written at the sixth-grade level, which from the sixth-grade perspective  can be quite a challenge.  What this really translates to is short sentences, concise paragraphs, fewer polysyllabic words, and all written in active voice.

As an example, Joe Biden spoke at a sixth grade level (6.1) in the vice presidential debate and there were few who claimed the inability to understand Ol’ Joe.   (Unfortunately, these tests do not evaluate facial expressions.)  In last night’s debate , Obama scored 7.2 in the grade-level score, about 28% lower (and in this case better) than his first debate — and nearly identical to his Grant Park discourse.

Both Romney and Obama cut their used of passive voice nearly in half  from 6% to 4% and 3%, respectively.  Active voice, where the subject is the doer of the action, is always preferred over passive voice in political discourse since it can be used to avoid responsibility.  (‘Taxes were raised’ rather than ‘I raise raised the taxes.)

Finally, Obama’s reading ease score improved over 8% from 63.1 to 70.1; Romney’s remained a bit higher at 71.0.

In champion fights, the unwritten rule is that you never take the current champ’s crown away on — points unless the victory is overwhelming.  Last night the President showed up to fight, and thus is awarded the victory on points.  So the Presidential Debate series now stands even at 0ne all, with the rubber (and deciding) match to take place next week.


With Obama’s structural lead, debate stakes couldn’t be higher

October 16, Austin, Texas — (Opinion) We have seen this all before in politics, in the board room, on the ball fields, and in life. The person at the top of the pecking order makes a misstep, seemingly minor, and then cascades into something major, and then cascades further still until it become calamitous — unless it can be stopped in time. Time is of the essence here. It must be squelched immediately, or sooner. And hopefully sooner still.

Perhaps it is ironic that one of the best examples was that of Mitt Romney’s Dad, George, in his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination back in the late ’60s. George Romney claimed that he had been ‘brainwashed’ by the U.S. military and diplomatic personnel on a visit to Vietnnam. “Romney brainwashed’ screamed the headlines. And that was all it took for his campaign to unravel.

Even a youthful observer could understand that Romney was using what in literature is known as synecdoche, where a part is used to represent something far larger. I have since seen this repeated scores of times in political confrontations of all types most recently in the Arab Spring. Today, we label this kind of support ‘shallow’ where a significant number of supporters are ready to abandon their candidate at the first instance that a viable alternative arises.

Could this explain what we saw in the aftermath of the first debate? It seems unlikely, but nevertheless could explain the remarkable transformation of the presidential contest we are now witnessing. I should note that it also doesn’t mean the the president will lose on November 6th. His lead is structural, both in terms of constituents as well as geography. There are many paths available for Obama to construct a electoral majority. For Romney the options are far fewer. Even if Romney’s momentum continues to build, there is a possibility of Romney eking out a slim victory in the popular vote, while losing by a far larger margin in the Electoral College.

The stakes in Tuesday’s debate could not be higher. For Romney the task is to build upon his momentum, for Obama it is to halt Romney in his tracks before he loses complete control of the race.

Paul JJ Payack, president, Global Language Monitor

A slightly different version of this article appeared on TheHill.com on October 15, 2012.


Malarkey Vs. Adorkable: The Vice Presidential Debate

Two words can be used to distill the essence of  Thursday Night’s Vice Presidential Debate:  Malarkey Vs. Adorkable.

On the one hand you have Joe Biden in familiar territory talking, interrupting, spinning, smiling feverishly to help the Democrats regain control of the political narrative after the widely perceived misteps of the president in the first Presidential Debate; on the other you have Paul Ryan, the wunder wonk, attempting to demonstrate 1) that he is NOT Sarah Palin, and 2) that he is more than simply a policy wonk and has the attendant seriousness, intelligence and skill set necessary to sit a heartbeat away from the presidency.  Both succeeded in their appointed tasks.

Though Biden used the term ‘malarkey’ to describe Ryan’s debate performance, it was Biden who more closely typified the concept of  ‘malarkey’ (bluster).  Ryan did not stray too far from his policy wonk persona, but was fortunate that dorks, nerds and wonks are now in fashion.  Hence the term ‘adorkable’ for ‘adorable dork’.  In fact, The Global Language Monitor had named ‘adorkable’ as the Top Television Word of the Year just a month or so ago.

In terms of language usage, Biden used about 30% more passive voice than Ryan.  Many believe that the passive voice is used to shade the truth, opposed to simple declarative sentences.  Ryan and Biden both were relatively easy to understand according to the standardized algorithms coming in at 69.4 and 72.6 on the Reading Ease Scale.  As for Grade Level, Ryan came in at 6.6, while Biden scored a 6.1.  For comparison, Obama scored a 9.2 and Romney a 6.8 in their first debate.

(As a side note, Biden’s score (6.1)  was the lowest ever recorded in a debate, surpassing  Ross Perot’s previous low of 6.3).


The Final Narrative of Barack Obama

Austin, Texas.  October 9, 2012 —  The controversy swirling around Obama’s debate performance  completely misses the point.  For better or worse, this is it. Stripped of all pretension. Devoid of the catch phrases and the swoons. Minus the Hollywood glam. This is he. Barack Obama. The man, unadorned.  No longer do we see Obama through a glass dimly. Now we see him for who he is. This is neither to embellish nor dis-embellish the man. This is to see things for what they are and not what they ought — or ought not — to be.

At the Global Language Monitor we understand that life is not an exit poll; we cannot shape the reality of how we just voted. It is a zero-sum thing, a binary action, a one or a zero, a yes or a no. In the same manner we have tracked the narrative of Barack Obama the preceding five years, stripped of all adornment, searching for the reality that was all too frequently, standing right before us, actually in our midst, if only we had the will to open our eyes to see.

Of course we have unabashedly published our findings along the way but at that time our findings seemed a bit out-of-step, as indeed they were. Out-of-step with the perceived reality, but in step with reality as it was. Unlike most of life, a new president is graced with a honeymoon period, when missteps are overlooked, forgotten, or forgiven.  This is not the ‘suspension of disbelief’  that allows us to enjoy a fantastical story in the cinema but rather a ‘suspension of self-interest,’ where we put aside our partisan differences and wait.  We wait for the cues and signals, both small and large, that will reveal the intentions, proclivities, and (dare I say it?) the character of the incumbent.

For some presidents this grace period is over nearly before it starts (Gerald Ford and George W. Bush come to mind).  For others, it lasts a bit longer (George H.W. Bush), and for others longer still (Ronald Reagan).    In the case of Barack Obama, the situation was markedly different.  Being a black man, most Americans wanted him to succeed precisely because he was a black man.  As a relative outsider, he was a welcome break from the recent past (and impending future) — Bush 41, Clinton 42, Bush 43, Clinton 44?

Being a newcomer, he was the classic tabula rasa, a blank slate upon which we could pour upon all our hopes and dreams.  And change?  Who on this planet did not want  change from the preceding eight years:  a divisive and disputed election, global terrorism and 9/11, two wars in the Middle East, a devastating tsunami, the inundation of one of America’s great cities, and to top it off, the global financial meltdown. All this being so, Barack Obama began his presidency with an extraordinarily large reservoir of good will.  Let’s call this reservoir the Hope and Change Quotient (HCQ).

During Obama’s first days in office, the nation was engulfed in ‘anger and rage’? GLM analyzed the situation back in February 2009 and found that what was being reported as ‘anger’ was actually ‘frustration,’ while what was being reported as ‘rage’ was actually ‘despair’, a sense of foreboding or impending doom. GLM followed this rather odd undercurrent during the earliest, most hopeful, days of the Obama administration. The results were striking, especially, in contrast to the immense outpouring of global goodwill in response to the inauguration of Barack Obama, since the survey included the ten days immediately following Obama’s swearing in.  Some of the keywords showing heightened awareness were Abandoned, Despair, Desperation, and Fear — all appearing in the media with double digit increases over the pre-election period.   This was perhaps an abberation we thought, but as we moved forward, the pattern continued unabated.

We saw a turning point with the Gulf Oil Spill speech.  This was the opportunity to show the world how a US President would properly respond to a major crisis threatening the Gulf Coast, the ecosystem, and the forces of nature and the evil of Man (an arrogant CEO from Central casting, BP, Halliburton, and a 24×7 ‘Spill Cam’ spewing forth colorful filth, worthy of  a Dreamworks 3-D treatment.   And what did we get?  We got what we had been measuring for the preceding two years:  Obama 2.0, with an academic-sounding speech detailing a broad plan for an alternative-energy future and few specifics, and little of the hell-and-brimstone his followers had hope for.  

By now it was becoming apparent for all to see.   This was a changed and changing man, at least how he revealed himself publicly through speech.  By time the 2010 Mid-Terms delivered their ‘shellacking’ the transformation was nearly complete.   With a few noteworthy exceptions, such as his Tuscon eulogy,which ranked among his best, the President has appeared less-and-less engaged, more-and-more distant.

In July we noted that the top political buzzwords were telling a far different story than either campaign was presenting to the American people.  Our analysis found that Bush was clearly assigned responsibility for the so-called Great Recession, while Obama was responsibility for the economy’s current condition, just as concern over Bain Capital and the ‘war against women’ were of less and little concern respectively.  In other words, the American people saw the issues as if the virulent political ads of both parties did not exist.  In contrast ‘Still believe the American Dream’  was No. 5 and ‘Disappointment in Obama Administration’ was No. 6.

At the same time, the Hope and Change Quotient has nearly been depleted, this being the normal course near the end of every president’s first term in recent memory.   The President has finally been vetted.  We now know the man, his strengths, weaknesses, and his proclivities.  This is not to say that he will not win in his bid for re-election.  But this is to say, that for better or worse, this is it.

This is the final narrative of Barack Obama.

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GLM used NarrativeTracker Technology in this study. NarrativeTracker is based on the global discourse, providing a real-time, accurate picture of what any audience is saying about any topic, at any point in time. NarrativeTracker analyzes the Internet, the top global print and electronic media, as well as new media sources as they emerge.

Paul JJ Payack is the president and Chief Word Analysts of Austin-based Global Language Monitor.


First Debate: For Obama It’s the 2010 Mid-terms All Over Again

Austin Texas — October 4, 2012. In the first debate of the quadrennial Presidential Debate Season, it was like the 2010 Mid-terms all over again. Not that there were presidential debates in 2010. It’s just that President Obama seemed to revert to his ‘pre-shellacking’ public speaking form: a bit disengaged, a tad too dismissive and, dare we say it ‘professorial’?

Indeed, what seemed to surprise if not shock the 40,000,000 or so in last night’s viewing audience, was not the effective performance of Mitt Romney but rather the lackluster performance of the incumbent president. Many pundits had predicted the president would trounce his opponent in the debate, possibly creating an insurmountable gulf between them with some 30 days remaining before the election.

In mid-summer we published our Top Political Buzzwords of the Presidential Campaign and found profound differences between the actual concerns of the public and the political narratives of both parties. Last night’s debate was consistent with our findings; there was no talk of the politics of fear the ‘war against women’ of even mention of ‘the 47%’.  However, the debate did point to profound difference in the belief systems of both parties, yet found enough common ground to produce distinct yet constructive and viable alternatives from which to choose.

One of the benefits of analyzing presidential debates, speeches and inaugural addresses for more than a decade, is the ability to make data-driven historical comparisons. These are especially effective when spotting trends and changes in direction. In 2007, spotted a man with a a truly captivating facility to turn an eloquent phrase.  This man warranted comparisons with Martin Luther King’s “I have a Dream’ and Reagan’s ‘Tear Down This Wall’ speeches with his own ‘Yes, We Can!’ victory speech in Chicago’s Grant Park.

However, it also tracked Obama’s sojourn to a more ‘inaccessible,’ sometimes even pedestrian speaking style. There were a number of turning points, a number of these occurring in 2010.

The numbers from last might’s debate bear this changing dynamic this out. For the President, the numbers tracked with his BP Gulf Oil Speech: long sentences, more passive voice, and a ninth-grade reading level (all of which can be signatures of considerable erudition). However, the numbers can also signify a less direct, less immediate communications style that differs considerably from the Obama to whom we were first introduced.

For Romney, his numbers were the reverse of the President (at least for the night):  shorter sentences, easier to understand, his seventh-grade reading level closer to the of Obama of Grant Park.


Olympic Lingo: Obscure Words Related to the London 2012 Summer Games

Austin, Texas. July 30, 2012 . In the spirit of public service, the editors of the Global Language Monitor, have selected a number of the more obscure words and phrases related to the London 2012 Summer Olympics and presented below with definitions and/or related factoids. “The history of the Olympic Games spans over 2800 years, with the Games themselves persisting for over 1,000 years in the Ancient World,” said Paul JJ Payack, president of GLM. “The Games have garnered a rich tapestry of linguistic innovation concerning the nature of the Games, the individual sports, and the rituals surrounding the quadrennial festival.” Below are some of the more obscure words and phrases with definitions and/or related factoids.

  1. Citius, Altius, Fortius (Olympic History) — The Olympic Motto is actually Latin (and not Greek) for Faster, Higher, Stronger)
  2. Dead Rubber (Tennis) — A match in a series where the outcome has already been decided by previous matches
  3. Eggbeater (Water Polo) — Kicking one’s feet quickly in a back-and-forth motion keep the body above water
  4. Fletching (Archery) — Traditionally, feathers from the left wing of a turkey, goose, or raptor used to stabilize an arrow; now replaced with synthetics
  5. Flu-Flu Arrow (Archery) — An arrow with extra ‘fletching’ to slow its flight
  6. High Drag Projectile (Badminton) — The birdie or shuttlecock
  7. Impulsion (Equestrian) — The thrust, impelling, or pushing power of a horse
  8. Kotinos (Olympic History) — Olive branches fixed in crowns of victory in the classical Greek Olympics
  9. Marathon (Olympic History — The word Marathon is derived from the Greek for fennel, the spice which apparently grew in abundance on the plains
  10. Nutmeg or Nuttie (Football) — Kicking the football between the legs of an opponent
  11. Pankration — A sport contested beginning in the 7th century BCE, that combined wrestling and boxing (similar to today’s Mixed Martial Arts)
  12. Pheidippidean Pheat (Olympic History) — Forget the Phelpsian Pheat of the Beijing Games, according to legend Pheidippides ran from the battlefield of Marathon to Athens pronounced, Victory! and then promptly died. (The actual distance was about 24 miles or 38.6 km.
  13. Repechage — First round losers are provided another opportunity to advance in a competition
  14. The Snatch Deadlift (Weightlifting)– Lifting the barbell in a single movement, as opposed to the Clean and Jerk
  15. Victor Ludorum (Olympic History) — The Champion of the Games, in Latin of course.

GLM has been tracking language at the Olympics since the Athens Games in 2004.


Adorkable Top Television Word of the Year (Teleword)

… from New Girl, Big Bang & Modern Family

followed by Shell Shock, Bi-Polar, Dothraki and La Toti

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Ninth Annual Analysis by the Global Language Monitor

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Austin, Texas, USA. September 25-26, 2012. The Global Language Monitor (GLM) today announced that ‘adorkable’ from New Girl and Big Bang, and Modern Family the Top Teleword of the Year followed by ‘Bi-polar,’ ‘Dothraki’, and ‘La Toti’.  Rounding out the top ten were ‘scripted,’ ‘Kate,’ ‘fourth screen,’ ‘nerdy,’ and ‘Jubilee’. The awards are announced in conjunction with the Primetime Emmy awards at the beginning of the Fall television season in the US.  This is the ninth annual analysis by Austin-based GLM.

“This is the first time a single phrase from three outstanding comedies shared the top spot,” said Paul JJ Payack, President and Chief Word Analyst of GLM.  “This year’s list also reflects a world trying to find a new equilibrium for itself from lessons culled from its past, its present, with a touch of fantasy as it moves into the future.”

 

Read it now in TIME!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Top Telewords of the 2011-2012 season with commentary follow:

1.     Adorkable (Big Bang Theory, New Girl and Modern Family) – The word has been around for nearly ten years now and has applied mostly to men (as in Jim Parsons), but somehow Zooey Deschanel, and  Modern Family’s Rico Rodriguez II (Manny) and Ariel Winter (Alex) have all added a vibrant dimension to the term. [A portmanteau word from dork and adorable.]

2.     Shell Shock (Downton Abbey) – The trauma of shell shock both in the trenches of World War 1 and the vanishing way of life of the English Upper Class lies at the center of this early 20th c. drama. Societies, too, can experience shell shock. [Also called battle fatigue, now known as Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)].

3.     Bi-polar (Homeland) – Looking at an insane world through bi-polar eyes, Claire Danes presents an intense, intriguing portrayal of the post-Modern battlefield found in Homeland, where the enemies are neither obvious nor detectable on both side of the battle.  [Historically known as manic-depressive disorder, where people experience disruptive mood swings.

4.     Dothraki (Game of Thrones) – The twenty-three consonants and four vowels of the Dothraki language are not much easier to understand that the series multiple plotlines. [Dothraki is a made-up or 'constructed' language.  There are hundreds of these 'constructed' languages from 'Vulcan' to J.R.R. Tolkien's 'Elvish' to the 120-words of  'Toki Pona'.

5.     La Toti (Modern Family) – Family nickname of Sofía Margarita Vergara Vergara, the highest earning actress in American television for the past year ($19.1 million).  ['La Toti' loosely translated as 'the be all and end all'.]

6.     Scripted – Scripted shows now mean ‘not reality’.  Like the term guitar now needs the retronym ‘acoustic guitar’ to differentiate itself from its electronic brethren, reality TV has now become the dominate genre.

7.     Kate – Who are the 100,000 people surrounding the Duchess of Cambridge?  Those would be the Olympians and fans of the London 2012 Summer Olympics. Oh.

8.     Fourth Screen – Whatever happen to the three-screen world of tomorrow.  That would be yesterday.  Past prognosticators  evidently forgot to consult Steve Jobs about the ‘tablets’ in their future. [The three screens were those of the television, computer and smart phone.  Apple's iPad proved to be a game-changer introducing a new class of devices called 'tablets'.

9.     Jubilee – From Queen Elizabeth II’s 60th anniversary on the throne of England.  The traditional Jubilee period is fifty years, but no matter ….

10.  Dramedy (Louie) -- Is it comedy?  Is it drama?  Dunno, but it’s definitely C.K. [Shorthand for his Hungarian surname -- Székely.]  .

This exclusive ranking is based upon GLM’s Narrative Tracking technology.  NarrativeTracker analyzes the Internet, blogosphere, the top 250,000 print and electronic news media, as well as new social media sources (such as Twitter) as they emerge.

The words, phrases and concepts are tracked in relation to their frequency, contextual usage and appearance in global media outlets.

The Top Telewords of previous years:

2011 – SpillCam from the Gulf Oil Spill, followed by Guido (Jersey Shore) and Reality (TV)

2010 – ‘Royal Wedding’ of Kate Middleton and Prince William, followed by Charlie Sheen’s ‘winner,’ and Arab Spring.

2009 – ObamaVision — All Obama, all the time, everywhere, followed by Financial Meltdown and the death of Michael Jackson.

2008 – Beijing (from the Olympics), ObamaSpeak, followed by ‘facts are stubborn things’, ‘it is what it is,’ and Phelpsian.

2007 – “Surge” from the Iraq War political and military strategy, “That’s Hot®” Paris Hilton’s popular expression that is now a registered trademark, and “D’oh!” from The Simpsons and The Simpsons Movie.

2006 – ‘Truthiness’ and ‘Wikiality’ from the Colbert Show followed by ‘Katrina’, ‘Katie,’ and ‘Dr. McDreamy’.

2005 – ‘Refugee’ from the coverage of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, followed by ‘Desperation’ from Desperate Housewives and ‘Camp Cupcake’ from the on-going Martha Stewart follies.

2004 – “You’re Fired!” edged “Mess O’ Potamia” followed by “Girlie Men,” “God,” and “Wardrobe Malfunction”.


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The Colbert Report Mon – Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Obama’s Simplified BP Oil Spill Speech
www.colbertnation.com
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Global Language Monitor tracks and analyzes… by tvnportal

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BBC America: ‘Millionth English word’ declared

A US web monitoring firm has declared the millionth English word to be Web 2.0, a term for the latest generation of web products and services.

Matt Frei reports on English’s unique linguistic evolution and then spoke to Global Language Monitor’s Paul Payack who helped find this millionth English word.

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SEE ALSO

BBC NEWS | Programmes | World News America | ‘Millionth English word’ declared

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One Million Words and Counting: NBC

NBC News: One Million Words and Counting

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Watch ABC NightLine: ‘The Word Nerd’ Discovers the Millionth Word

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Now you can watch the Global Language Monitor Channel on

All Language News, Any time You Want It!

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Top All-time Bushisms (CNN)

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London Edges New York for Top 2012 Global Fashion Capital

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Ninth Annual Ranking Now Includes Fifty-five Cities

September 6, 2012,  New York and Austin, Texas.   London has been crowned the Top Global Fashion Capital, edging out New York for the second year in a row, according to the Global Language Monitor’s annual ranking of the Top Fifty Fashion Capitals.  London and New York were followed by Barcelona, Paris and Madrid.  Rounding out the Top Ten were Rome, Sao Paulo, Milano, Los Angeles, and Berlin.

“London’s two-year run has been has been propelled by two rather extraordinary circumstances:  the emergence of the former Kate Middleton as a top fashion icon and the recent completion of what have been hailed as an extremely successful Summer Olympics,” said Bekka Payack, Manhattan-based Fashion Director of GLM.  “In recognition of the significance and growth of regional capitals with their distinctive styles and contributions to the fashion industry, GLM expanded the list to some fifty-five cities on five continents.”

Top movers on the plus side included Antwerp (+33), Caracas (+27), Johannesburg (+23), and Sao Paulo (+18).  Top movers on the down side include Mexico City        (-25), Toronto (-19), Moscow (-17), Chicago (-14), and Mumbai (-14), attesting to the heightened global competition.  Newcomers to this year’s analysis were Vancouver (31),  Seoul (34), Boston (44),  Houston (49), and St Petersburg, Russia (51).

Prior to London’s two year reign, New York had reclaimed the crown from Milan.  Previous to this, New York had been the top fashion capital for five years running, taking the crown from Paris.
The 2012 Top Global Fashion Capitals, with Rank, Previous Year’s Rank, and commentary:
1.   London (1) – Competitors stymied by Kate Middleton and now the hugely successful Summer Olympics.
2.   New York (2)– That toddling town is waiting in the wings for London to stumble.
3.   Barcelona (7) — Iberia rules with two fashion capitals in the Top Five.
4.   Paris (3)–  Topped ‘haute couture’ category, of course.
5.   Madrid (12)– Making a strong move toward the top.
6.   Rome (13)– Edging Milano this time out.
7.   Sao Paulo (25) — The Queen of Latin America, again.
8.   Milano (4) — Slipping a few spots, but never for long.
9.   Los Angeles (5) — The City of Angels strengthening its hold as a true fashion capital.
10.   Berlin (10) — Remains among the elite — and deservedly so.
11.   Antwerp (44) — A surprising large climb in a very short time (up 33 spots).
12.   Hong Kong (6) — Tops in Asia, though down six year over year.
13.   Buenos Aires (20) — Moving steadily upward.
14.   Bali (21) — Steady climb attests to it being more than just swimwear.
15.   Sydney (11) — Remains near the top, a few steps ahead of Melbourne, as is its wont.
16.   Florence (31) — A big move for Firenza (up 15).
17.   Rio de Janeiro (23) — Building toward the 2016 Summer Games.
18.   Johannesburg (41) — Jo-burg breaks into the Top Twenty.
19.   Singapore (8) — Trailing  Hong Kong but leading Tokyo and Shanghai.
20.   Tokyo  (9) — No longer the No, 5 to the Top Four, competition is aglow in Asia.
21.   Melbourne (17) — Still strong, still a few steps behind Sydney.
22.   Shanghai (14) — A thriving fashion center in a tough competitive arena.
23.   Caracas (50) — Tremendous upward movement for a seminal fashion center.
24.   Las Vegas (16) — Follow the money, and the money and the stars flow to Vegas.
25.   Monaco (15) — The principality is firmly ensconced in the European fashion firmament.
26.   Santiago (30) — A solid No. 5 in Latin America.
27.  Amsterdam (19) — Creative, original and a bit outre.
28.   Dubai (27) — A steady force in the mid-East ready to bloom further.
29.   Bangkok (32) — Struggling to gain ground in the region.
30.   Copenhagen (29) — Keeping pace with (and a bit ahead of) Stockholm.
31.   Vancouver (Debut) — Solid debut from this newcomer from the Pacific Northwest.
32.   Stockholm (28) — The Capital of Scandinavia’s influence is beginning to transcend its regional roots.
33.   Krakow (47) — A scrappy player wielding a surprising amount of influence.
34.   Seoul (Debut) — Korean fashion has now gained a foothold on the world scene.
35.   Moscow (18) — A bold and growing presence despite a stumble in the current analysis.
36.   Frankfurt (43) — Carving out its own space in Berlin’s towering shadow.
37.  Vienna (35) — Insight into 21st c. fashion emerging from ancient imperial venues.
38.  Mumbai (24) — Still leading New Delhi (now by 10 spots) to dominate the Subcontinent.
39.   Miami (26) — The fashion world beginning to understand Miami is more than swimwear.
40.  Abu Dhabi (42) — A steady climb backed by deep pockets.
41.   San Francisco (38) — A rising yet iconoclastic star.
42.   Austin (40) — Famous for its ‘Mash Up’ teams, the city propels its unique style forward.
43.   Warsaw (33) — Particularly influential in Central Europe.
44.   Boston (Debut) — Can New England deliver fashion to the world? Apparently so.
45.   Prague (48) —  A firm foundation in interpreting the traditional and the classic.
46.   Dallas (37) — Outdistances Houston to settle the local score.
47.   Mexico City (22) — Slips some twenty-five spots since the last report.
48.   New Delhi (39) — Striving for relevance on the global stage.
49.   Houston (Debut) — Big, bold and a city to watch.
50.   Chicago (36) – City of the Big Shoulders stretching out toward word-class fashion.
51.   St. Petersburg (Debut) — The former imperial capital making strides on the global fashion scene.
52.  Montreal (49) — Eclipsed by the debut of Vancouver but still a formidable force.
53.  Toronto (34) —  Nipped by its francophone neighbor to the North.
54.  Cape Town (46) — Though Jo-burg won the latest duel, Cape Town surely has plans.
55.  Atlanta (45) — Gaining an international reputation for its bold accents.
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This exclusive ranking is based upon GLM’s Narrative Tracking technology.  NarrativeTracker analyzes the Internet, blogosphere, the top 250,000 print and electronic news media, as well as new social media sources (such as Twitter) as they emerge.

The words, phrases and concepts are tracked in relation to their frequency, contextual usage and appearance in global media outlets.

 

Top Fashion Capitals by Region:

Europe (14):  London,  Barcelona, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Milano, Berlin, Antwerp, Florence, Monaco, Amsterdam,  Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Frankfurt.

Middle and Eastern Europe (6):  Krakow, Moscow, Vienna, Warsaw, Prague, and St Petersburg.

North America (13):  New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Vancouver, San Francisco, Austin, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Montreal, Toronto, and Atlanta.

Asia (6):  Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Shanghai, Bangkok, and Seoul.

Subcontinent (2):  Mumbai, New Delhi,

Oceania (3):  Bali, Sydney, and Melbourne.

Latin America (6):  Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro,  Caracas, Santiago, and Mexico City.

Middle East and Africa (4):  Dubai, Johannesburg, Abu Dhabi, and Cape Town.

The world fashion trade  is estimated to be over three trillion USD.


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