Top Political Buzzwords: Negative Narrative Entangles President and His Party
.Top Political Buzzwords Six Weeks Out
. Narrative Tracking-based Election Forecast:
..Opposite of 2008
..Hillary Clinton Ascendant as No. 8
AUSTIN, Texas, September 24, 2010. The Global Language Monitor (GLM) today announced that the Top Buzzwords of the Mid-term Elections portray a strongly negative narrative that has increasingly entangled the president and his party with six weeks remaining before the Mid-term elections. The Top Ten Buzzwords include Narrative, Lower Taxes, Obama as a Muslim, Conservative, Climate Change, Liberal, Recession (linked to Obama), Hillary Clinton related to Obama, Tea Partiers, and Obama as Aloof, Detached, or Professorial.
These are a dramatic departure from the top buzzwords immediately preceding the 2008 Presidential election where the Top Buzzword was Change, blame for the recession was clearly assigned to George W. Bush, Raising Taxes was No. 27, and the Surge was still a Top Ten issue as was the price of gasoline. Obamamania was the No. 3 Word of 2008 (after Change and Bailout); Obamamania now stands at No. 63. One consistency: Nuclear Iran was No. 31; now Nuclear Iran is No. 33.
Austin-based Global Language Monitor has been analyzing political buzzwords since the run-up to the Iraq War in 2003.
“The Top Political Buzzwords reflect a strongly negative narrative that the president and his party have six weeks to overcome,” said Paul JJ Payack, President and Chief Word Analyst of GLM. “Typically an opinion swing of this magnitude can be directly attributable to outside events, not of one’s personal doing.”
Election Forecast: In an additional analysis, the Global Language Monitor has forecast the results of the Mid-term Elections based on the number of citations received, relating to Liberal/Progressive, Conservative and Independent labels. Liberal and Progressives were measured together and separately. Based on the analysis concluded earlier this week, the results are projected to largely inversely mirror the results of 2008, where Obama won some 53% of the vote to McCain’s 46% with 1% other. With the Independents splitting evenly or slightly in favor of the Republicans, the 2010 results would range from 53% to 56% Republicans to 44% to 47% for the Democrats. Of course there are still six weeks before the election with game-altering ‘October Surprises’ a very real possibility.
Some seventy political buzzwords were tracked; the analysis was concluded on September 22, 2010.
The Top Political Buzzwords Six Weeks Out include:
1. Narrative – Idea of the narrative is a strong No. 1
2. Lower Taxes – 600% higher than Raise Taxes (No. 10)
3. Obama Muslim Connection - Two weeks before 2008 Election it was No . 6
4. Conservatives – Stand at 43% of sample citations
5. Climate Change – Always one of Top 5
6. Liberal - Liberal/Progressives stand at 33% of Citations
7. Recession (linked to Obama) – Over 4x the number that link to GWB (No.20)
8. Hillary Clinton – Hillary Ascendant
9. Tea Partiers – Very strong for a recent phenomenon
10. Obama Aloof, detached, Professorial – Reached peak in reaction to his handling the Gulf Oil Spill
11. Raise Taxes – Only 16% of lower taxes (No. 2)
12. Progressive – 74% of Liberal citations; Liberal/Progressives stand at 33% of Citations
13. Deficit Spending – Close to Out-of-Control Spending (No.15)
14. Independents – Independents stand at 20% of citations
15. Out-of-control Spending — Spending is widely viewed as out-of-control
16. Sarah Palin – Apparently, opposition only makes her stronger
17. Healthcare Mandate – Nearly triple the concern for HC Reform (No. 21)
18. Change you can believe in – Not so much, these days
19. Iraq War – Far from top of Mind
20. Recession (linked to Bush) – Warning to Dems, this is fading from view
21. Healthcare reform – Comes in just a bit higher than the Gulf Oil Spill
22. BP Gulf Oil Spill — The BP SpillCam was the No. 1 Television Word (Teleword) of the Year
23. Anti-incumbent — It’s not just a matter of anger; lower than pundits have it
24. Obama “oil spill” response — Major factor in negativity of overall narrative
25. Al Qaeda – Low ranking reflected by several polls, also
26. George Bush — Not much value in running a ‘Not Bush’ Campaign
27. Wall Street Bailout – Bush, Bailout, Pelosi and Limbaugh, Cheney (and Reid) line up closely
28. Grand Zero Mosque – More than 110 times the number of citations for 51 Park Place
29. Nancy Pelosi — Off the radar nowadays
30. Rush Limbaugh – Interesting pairing at Nos, 29 and 30, no?
Other highlights include:
· Afghanistan stands at No. 37
· Obama is now linked to Katrina more often than Bush
· Transparency now stands at No. 43
· Birther seems to receive much more media than deserved (No. 49)
· Sarah Palin’s malapropism Refudiate is No. 55
· Shovel Ready is down to No. 64.
Top Political Buzzwords of Past Elections
- The Top Political Buzzwords of the 2008 Elections included: Change, Climate Change, the price of Gasoline, Recession, Experience, and Obama as a Muslim
- The Top Political Buzzwords for the 2006 Midterm Elections included: Throes, Quagmire, Credibility, Global Warming, and Insurgency
- The Top Political Buzzwords from the 2004 Elections included: Swift Boats, Flip Flop, Quagmire, Fahrenheit 911, Misleader, and Liar!
About Narrative Tracker
The Narrative Tracker is based on the national discourse, providing a real-time, accurate picture of what the public is saying about any topic, at any point in time. NarrativeTracker analyzes the Internet, blogosphere, the print and electronic media, as well as new social media sources (such as Twitter). In addition to the NTI, the NarrativeTracker Arc™ follows the rise and fall of sub-stories within the main narrative to provide a comprehensive overview of the narratives being tracked.
NTI by its very nature is non-biased. When we take a statistical snapshot there is no adjustment for ‘underrepresented’ groups, there are no assumptions about probability of turnout, the proportions of newly registered voters, traditional models, or expanded modularity’s. In other words, it is what it is.