Election Day Forecast
56-53% Republicans; 44-47% Democrats, 1% Other
The Inverse of the 2008 Results
AUSTIN, Texas. Nov. 2, 2010 According to its NarrativeTracker Index, the Global Language Monitor has forecast the results of the
Mid-term Elections based on the number of citations received, relating to Liberal/Progressive, Conservative and Independent labels. Election Forecasting by Narrative Tracking has never before been attempted by any party.
Liberal and Progressives were measured together and separately. Based on the analysis concluded on November 1st , the results are projected to largely inversely mirror the results of 2008, where Obama won some 53% of the vote to McCain’s 46% with 1% other.
With the Independents splitting 6/4 in favor of the Republicans, the 2010 results would range from 56-53% Republicans; with 44% to 47% for the Democrats, with 1% other.
The previous analysis was made in September with six weeks remaining before the elections. There was no game-altering ‘October Surprise;’ positions around the various issues only solidified.
The NarrativeTracker Index is based on the national discourse, providing a real-time, accurate picture of what the public is saying about any topic related to healthcare, at any point in time. NarrativeTracker analyzes the Internet, blogosphere, the print and electronic media, as well as new social media sources (such as Twitter). Including social media in the mix of Internet and electronic and print media sources provides a very clear (and accurate) snapshot of what the people are actually thinking.
The predictive element only adds to NarrativeTracker’s power. In addition to the NTI, the NarrativeTracker Arc™ follows the rise and fall of sub-stories within the main narrative to provide a comprehensive overview of the narratives being tracked.
About the Global Language Monitor: Austin, Texas-based Global Language Monitor analyzes and catalogues the latest trends in word usage and word choices, and their impact on the various aspects of culture, with a particular emphasis upon Global English. Since 2003, GLM has launched a number of innovative products and services monitoring the Internet, the Blogosphere, Social Media as well as the Top 25,000 print and electronic media sites,