An Ongoing Big Data Language Analysis of the Ebola Pandemic of 2014
1. The current pandemic has already claimed more lives that all previous outbreaks combined.
2. The official total stands at 2,461 people, half of the 4,985 infected by the virus.
3. The current goal of the UN is to keep the outbreak “in the tens of thousands”
4. Concern Grows that the Outbreak is Out-of-Control and could infect two hundred thousand and take 18 months, or even years, to contain.
5. If the case count reaches hundreds of thousands, “there will be little we can do ….”
Austin, TEXAS, September 18, 2014 — The Ebola-tracker is the Big Data language analysis of the official numbers released by the World Health Organization and the conversations occurring by experts in various fields about the subject.
Our purpose is to analyze the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak objectively, without biases or blinders of any sort.
In particular, the goal is to examine the latest thinking on the course, the geographic extent, and the time to-contain the pandemic.
One thing is certain: things do not look good.
As shown below the toll has doubled in the last month. Patient Zero was a two-year-old girl, who died on 6 December 2013 in Meliandou, a small village in south-eastern Guinea.
This being so, current projections about the course, geographic extent, and time-to-containment can only be considered as educated guesses or even speculation.
Patient Deaths, September 13, 2014
As can be seen from this BBC chart, there is no evidence of decline, or leveling off, or a plateauing at this time.
Nevertheless, representatives from the World Health Organization suggested this week that the disease will top out around 20,000 cases. Since no containment efforts have proved successful in this outbreak thus far, the evidence for 20,000 cases being a topping out point appears to have no scientific data behind it.
In fact, if the current trends continue, the world may see the 20,000 level of Ebola cases by early-to-middle October,
Ebola Deaths Doubled over Previous Month
Below you can see the progressions of Top Out Numbers and their progression over the last few months. As you can see the predictions are lagging significantly behind the progression of the outbreak. This in itself is cause for concern.
Nota Bene: In spite of these projections/warnings from a number of experts, from academics, NGOs, and government agencies — the World Health Organization admits that it has no preparations for containment for more that 20,000 causalities.
“The window of opportunity to contain this outbreak is closing,” said Dr. Liu, president of the Doctors Without Borders. “We need more countries to stand up, we need greater deployment, and we need it now.”